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MACRO INDICATORS IMPACT TOWARDS RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN INDONESIA

Tanoto, Yusak and Praptiningsih, Maria (2012) MACRO INDICATORS IMPACT TOWARDS RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN INDONESIA. Project Report. Institut of Research and Community Outreach.

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    Abstract

    Household electricity consumption has become the highest rank among other sectors in Indonesia over the past decade. Its consumption growth takes second place after industrial sector with 8.14% and 10.45%, respectively, during 2006-2010. In the other hand, the importance of achieving the predetermined electrification ratio, as it reflects part of millennium development goal, has been unavoidable. Macro indicators impact towards electricity consumption in the residential sector is then considered prominent to be investigated in relation to the energy policy planning. The research objective includes establishment of appropriate model containing macro indicators as the variables through the utilization of econometric method. The study period is 1990 – 2010. In addition, the forecasting model for household electricity consumption is also developed using econometric method. Factors decomposition is then used to obtain several types of effect contributed in the electricity consumption growth during 2000 – 2010, such as intensity effect, structural effect, as well as activity effect. From the econometric point of view, the results found that BI rate, GDP, inflation and population are not significantly affecting the total energy consumption in Indonesia. Meanhile, electrification ratio and private consumption are significantly affecting to total energy consumption in Indonesia. In conclusion, total energy consumption has strongly influenced by the electrification ratio and private consumption. Moreover, the forecasting results found that the best model through ARIMA model in forecasting BI rate is ARIMA (0,1,1) or IMA (1,1); electrification ratio is ARIMA (1,1,0) or ARI (1); inflation is ARIMA (0,1,1) or IMA (1,1) and total energy consumption is ARIMA (0,1,1) or IMA (1,1). Similarly, the best model through ARCH/GARCH model in forecasting electrification ratio is ARCH (1) and GARCH (1); GDP is ARCH (1) and GARCH (1); Inflation is ARCH (1) and GARCH (1); and total energy consumption is ARCH (1) and GARCH (1). Meanwhile, using Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method which is offer more benefits over Aritmetic Mean Divisia Index (AMDI). Using LMDI additive-technique for the case of total residential sector of Indonesia, we find total residential electricity consumption in the period 1990 – 2010 became 29.285,2 GWh. The activity effect which is based GDP changes is the dominant factors contributing electricity consumption growth with 56.634,3 GWh. Insignificant contribution to the increasing electricity consumption was given by the structural effect changes in portion of household expenditure to the GDP, with 3.217.9 GWh in aggregate. On the other hand, intensity changes has consistently shown yearly negative value throughout the study period except for 2005 – 2006. This reveals that the intensity change, which is considered to be due to efficiency improvements, has shown its contribution for a decrease of 30.567 GWh in electricity consumption over the period. For the case of residential sub-sector, total residential electricity consumption is equal to summation of all sub-sector. Increasing electricity consumption in all sub-sector are identified affected by activity changes. It implies that increasing electricity consumption in R1 is indirectly caused by the positive trend of electrified-residential expenditure whereas in R2 and R3, electricity consumption growth are also due to increasing R2 and R3 expenditure.

    Item Type: Monograph (Project Report)
    Subjects: T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
    Divisions: Faculty of Industrial Technology > Electrical Engineering Department
    Depositing User: Maria Praptiningsih
    Date Deposited: 26 Feb 2014 06:08
    Last Modified: 26 Feb 2014 06:08
    URI: http://repository.petra.ac.id/id/eprint/16478

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