Blood Bags Demand Forecasting using ARIMA

Octavia, Tanti and Handojo, Andreas and HERIYANTO, GABRIELA CONSUELO (2023) Blood Bags Demand Forecasting using ARIMA. [UNSPECIFIED]

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Abstract

Blood is an irreplaceable thing in the human body. If a person lacks blood then a blood transfusion is needed from someone else. The Red Cross is an organization that handles the need for blood bags for the purposes of blood transfusions. The amount of demand for blood bags varies greatly each month so it is necessary to predict how many blood bags are needed. In this study, the demand for blood bags was forecasted using the ARIMA method. Forecasting was carried out on Whole Blood (WD) and Platelet Concentrate (TC) blood components considering the large difference in expiration time between WD with an expiration of 35 days and TC with an expiration of 5 days. Demand data is taken from January 2018 to September 2021 at the Indonesian Red Cross Surabaya. The forecasting results obtained show that the ARIMA model (0,1,3) for WD and the ARIMA model (1,1,3) for TC has the lowest RMSE error rate. From plotting the forecasting data against real data, it can be seen that the model made is adequate to be used as a forecast of blood bag demand.

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