Rolling forecast as an alternative tool for short term production planning: A case study of bicycle manufacturer

WINOTO, DESI and Widyadana, I Gede Agus (2021) Rolling forecast as an alternative tool for short term production planning: A case study of bicycle manufacturer. In: IC-AMME & LSCM 2021, 02-10-2021 - 02-10-2021, Surabaya - Indonesia.

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Abstract

The accuracy of production planning is crucial that must be achieved by manufacturing companies. Production planning is sensitive 10 sales pauerns and the availability of raw materials. Production planning must be in line with raw material planning. To ensure that the raw materials are available, production planning has 10 be deed in advance. In the waiting period for these raw materials. sales patterns may change so that the forecast and actual value deviations differ significantly. A dynamic mechanism of calculating the value of safety stock is carried out and carrying out the correction function of forecasting value by rolling forecast for overcoming it. Rolling forecasts allow forecasts of updated forecasting due 10 changes in sales patterns detected from actual sales value renewal. Using a rolling forecast as an alternative tool in forecast correction can reduce excess inventory by up to fifty-seven percent.

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