FORECASTING RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN INDONESIA

Macro indicators impact towards electricity consumption in the residential sector was
considered prominent to be investigated in relation to the energy policy planning. The research
objective includes establishment of appropriate model containing macro indicators as the variables
through the utilization of econometric method. The study period was 1990 – 2010. In addition, the
forecasting model for household electricity consumption is also developed using econometric
method. The forecasting result showed important findings in terms of supply capacity that should
be prepared by the government. Those macroeconomic indicators such as GDP and inflation are
confirmed to have a long term effect on residential electricity consumption particularly. The
government should be able to predict the demand side along with the supply side of
electricity. As one of the important energy, electricity should be intensively preserved as the
primary energy that affecting the aggregate economy such as consumption, production, and
also investment in the long term relatively to the other energy.