Demand Side Management Scenario for District Long-term Electricity Planning

Electricity demand growth in the long run should be satisfied by a
matched available power supply. Several aspects involved in this issue
include the proper projection of sectoral end-use electricity demand,
appropriate assumpsion on key parameters, available energy resources
and power energy delivered into the system. Such energy system can
be represented in a long-term electricity supply-demand model. This
paper presents a long-term electricity planning model using Longrange
Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP), an accounting
framework bottom-up model tool. A district area sustainable long-term
electricity planning taken into account household, business, industry,
and public sectors from 2013 to 2025 is modelled with emphasized on
the involvement of demand side mitigation scenario to help reduce the
need of energy. From the analysis, the Jember-Lumajang district
electricity consumption is estimated to be around 2,310.3 Thousand
MWh in 2025 with BEU scenario and it would be reduced up to
1,935.4 Thousand MWh if Demand Side Management scheme is
applied. Under the SUS scenario, the electricity demand growth over
the period of study is expected to be 5.63, or 1.38 lower than that
obtained in the BEU scenario.