Renewable Energy Potential for Sustainable Long-Term Electricity Energy Planning: A Bottom-up Model Application

This paper presents a preliminary assessment of renewable energy potential for long-term electricity energy planning. In order to implement a sustainable supply-demand framework, renewable energy resources consist of geothermal and solar energy based power plants are included in a bottom-up accounting based model along with energy efficient and
energy conservation approach in the demand side. The developed model is applied to a region comprises of 5 cities or regencies in the eastern part of East Java province, Indonesia. The main purpose of the study is to compare several supply-demand scenarios with respect to the resources, costs, and environmental impacts over the study period. According to the
analyses in this research, the 2025 total electricity consumption of the observed area would be 6,873.8 GWh for the case of �Business as Usual� scenario, or increase by 203% compared to year 2014 as the baseline. Meanwhile, applying �Energy Efficiency and Conservation� scenario, the growth is in a lower pace with 175% compared to the baseline or 6,222 GWh. Given the shortage of supply, more electricity should be imported from the interconnected system if the existing coal fired power plant is preserved throughout the simulation period compared to planning involving geothermal and solar energy based power plants.