Energy and Environment Implications of Long-Term Power Development Involving Renewable Energy: a Case of Timor Island, Indonesia

This paper presents a long-term electricity energy supply-demand model of Timor Island,
Indonesia. Implications of projected demand growth within the observed area towards the available
supply as well as the amount of CO2 emission is taken into account. As its main objective is to review
and to present initial comparison of the long-term electricity planning prepared by the utility, the
analysis is carried out using the bottom-up energy system model. Unlike the common electricity
long-term demand projection that is usually constructed based on the factors related to the electricity
growth, the model is developed based on the simple projection considering historical electricity
demand users. According to the analysis, the planned power plants would not able to meet the
electricity demand in the case of high growth demand scenario. The variation of CO2 emission that is
obtained from the considered scenarios is also shown.