Evaluation of Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness in handling theCovid-19 pandemic in the city of Surabaya with a dynamicsystem simulation approach using vensim PLE

The Covid-19 pandemic, a major global issue, has created a severe health emergency for the past year. In addition,
it led to a crisis of governance and policies for handling Covid-19 worldwide, particularly in the city of Surabaya. The
Surabaya city government has implemented various policies to handle the Covid-19 pandemic. However, there is no study
to evaluate the effectiveness of those policies. This study aims to provide predictions and evaluations regarding the
effectiveness of implementing policies for handling the Covid-19 pandemic in the City of Surabaya, especially the Covid-
19 vaccination policy. Furthermore, we simulated the effect of those policies on the rate of infected people using the
dynamic system model using Vensim PLE. The simulation results show that implementing of the Covid-19 vaccination
policy has proven adequate to reduce the total number of infected by 13.25% and reduce the total number of deaths by
35.55%. Moreover, the implementation of vaccination, the enforcement of community activity restrictions (PPKM),
convalescent plasma therapy, contact tracing and isolation, and also swab tests have been proven to reduce the rate of
increase in Covid-19 cases effectively.