A Comparative Study between the Facebook Prophet Model and SARIMA for Bitcoin Price Prediction

Noertjahyana, Agustinus and Ananda, Stephanus A. and , DAVID KRISTIAN YABES (2024) A Comparative Study between the Facebook Prophet Model and SARIMA for Bitcoin Price Prediction. IJIRSET, 13 (1). pp. 9-15. ISSN 2319-8753

	PDF Download (1037Kb)
	PDF Download (4Mb)

Abstract

The volatile nature of cryptocurrency markets, particularly Bitcoin, has led to an increased interest in developing accurate forecasting models for price predictions. In this study, we conduct a comparative analysis between two widely used time series forecasting models, the Facebook Prophet Model and SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), to assess their effectiveness in predicting Bitcoin prices. Based on the conducted tests, the results indicate that the Facebook Prophet model performs less favourably compared to SARIMA for daily Bitcoin predictions. However, the Facebook Prophet model yields better results than SARIMA in monthly predictions. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for daily Bitcoin predictions is 6.7% when using the Facebook Prophet model, whereas the MAPE for daily Bitcoin predictions with the SARIMA model is 4.5%. The MAPE for monthly Bitcoin predictions using the Facebook Prophet model is 2.6%, while the MAPE for monthly Bitcoin predictions with the SARIMA model is 8.4%.

Actions (login required)